Ascot Stakes Betting Tips
The best week of horse racing in Great Britain is back. Day one of Royal Ascot features some brilliant clashes in the Group 1 races, including Notable Speech taking on fellow Guineas winners in the St James’s Palace Stakes.
Audience is a value price to confirm his Group 1 credentials in the opening Queen Anne Stakes too, but the first big betting handicap of the week is the two-and-a-half-mile marathon that is the Ascot Stakes.
Though the ground has gone mostly good-to-firm since the weekend, there is still some ‘good’ in there which makes it defy belief that the clerk wants to water. Will we ever again get proper, fast summer ground for those who love to skip across it?
In any event it will be quick enough for this maximum field, one made up of improving staying handicappers on the flat and those coming from top jumps yards.
It’s no surprise to see Ryan Moore and William Buick riding the top two in the market and both their rides feature on our shortlist, made up of the following six horses:
Main Contenders
Divine Comedy
Harry Eustace has been a revelation in the training ranks and he saddles Divine Comedy.
His six-year-old mare is relatively difficult to handicap. She has won two races very easily indeed in the past year or so, one on soft ground and one on fast ground.
Her latest win was on the soft and it’s hard to know whether the easy nature of it was because of that fact, or in spite of it. Either way, she’s on the up and has an each-way chance.
My Lyka
It’ll be a surprise if this horse isn’t favourite by the time the race goes off. That is purely due to the familiar combo at this meeting of top jumps trainer Willie Mullins and top flat rider Ryan Moore.
They combine again, this time with a five-year-old who was improving in France on the flat for his previous trainer before heading to Mullins.
He was beaten on his hurdling debut, but given how long it’s been since we’ve seen him on the flat and who has been training him in the meantime, we can probably expect some pretty hefty improvement. As we cannot guarantee that without some proof however, he seems a little short in the betting.
Nusret
Joseph O’Brien’s Nusret is a pretty decent each-way price for this race after reaching a good level on the flat last season. That run culminated in him winning a Premier Handicap at the Curragh but there must be a little guesswork involved as to where he’s at now.
Pied Piper
Gordon Elliott trains Pied Piper, a horse rated 156 over hurdles which cannot be ignored.
On the level he has now reached a mark of 100 but the numbers on their own are confusing. He is at his highest mark now and reaches it having been beaten more than once, so can we really say that he’s at all well handicapped?
In mitigation, he was runner-up in no other race than the Cesarewitch last season and has had plenty of time to improve since. That hurdle rating of 156 also would suggest that he still has more to offer in this sphere so is not to be taken lightly at all.
Pledgeofallegiance
Sir Mark Prescott is one of the trainers looking to spoil the party for the jumps boys in this race with his Pledgeofallegiance.
We’re used to his string being able to improve race after race, though that tends to happen when they first start handicapping. This boy has had eight handicap outings now, but given that he’s gone in that time from a mark of 66 to one of 88 we cannot afford to believe in the slightest that his upward trajectory has levelled out.
Rather, it’s more logical to think that he has not reached his ceiling yet. His win over two miles at Goodwood last time came in the manner of a horse that was just doing enough. We reckon he’s by now probably 10lbs better than that, but has only been raised 3lbs for the win.
He’s well in, is trained at a top yard and should really appreciate this extra distance.
Zanndabad
A lot of the money in the build-up to this race has indeed come for Zanndabad, trained in Ireland and ridden by William Buick.
If the form were to always work out like clockwork, then this would be the one to be on. He was unlucky in running in the Chester Cup and is only up 2lbs for the run, so his chance is obvious. He is a little short in the betting however and doesn’t come with guarantees.
Summary
Zanndabad and My Lyka are obvious types, but PLEDGEOFALLEGIANCE is great value given what he has achieved and he can be backed each-way.