Our 30 Britannia Stakes three-year-olds are weighted right up to 9st 9lbs here, but history tells us that those at the top can struggle.

In the last ten runnings, weights carried have ranged from 8-4 to 9-6 with the median figure being 8-13. Undoubtedly the sweet spot is 8-8 to 9-4.

Eight of those 10 had run into the first two on their previous run, those beaten improving an average of 8lbs and those winning last time out improving about the same, maybe just a tad more.

As for the betting, there is some help there. Despite some tasty winning prices being recorded, the average winner in the last ten years was in the top 21% of the betting. In a maximum field that puts them in the top six of the market so while things can change, we should give weight to those in the top 12 or so.

Only ten horses fit into all of our categories, one of those being a reserve. Ultimately, these were the top-rated six: 

Main Contenders

Dashing Darcey 

Roger Varian made the best possible start to this week and he has a good chance in this race too.

His Dashing Darcey won nicely at Haydock Park last time out and basic improvement for a horse of his age should see him be competitive.

A look at his profile suggests that he should be fine on this faster ground and he has the help of Silvestre De Sousa up top.

Involvement 

The Crisfords haven’t had the best of luck going into this week at Ascot and their Involvement has been beaten twice this season already. That’s not ideal for a Britannia horse, but he remains in good form and is still improving.

He handled soft ground quite well last time and has run well on Tapeta, however his comfortable maiden win last year was on quick ground so it is possible that we’ll see the best of him on Thursday.

Mickley 

Ed Bethell’s runner comes into this on a hat-trick after wins at Southwell and Doncaster this term.

He is only four runs into his career so far and has improved with every outing. Just on the basic stats we reckon he’s around 7lbs well in which would be enough to win any other race he could have gone for at this stage, but arguably not necessarily this one.

Native Warrior 

Wathnan Racing’s first jockey James Doyle hasn’t always been on the right one this week. He is riding very well nonetheless and partners Native Warrior for Karl Burke.

This colt won at Nottingham last time and ran behind Guineas winner Notable Speech before that. His form is strong and it seems he has a leading chance.

Qirat

Profile-wise, Qirat is perfect for this race in every way but had we simply been looking at the form of every horse in this race anyway he’s bound to have shown up at the top.

A half-brother to the Beckett stable’s very classy Bluestocking, Qirat is a Showcasing gelding with that sire having already produced Royal Ascot winners such as Advertise and Mohaather.

Qirat did not get the run of the race last time at Goodwood and he was also left searching for room with only two furlongs to go as the race developed in front of him. When he got out, he simply burst to the front in the style of a good horse and even managed to put daylight between himself and the rest.

He looks very smart indeed and could be extremely well handicapped.

Volterra 

Kevin Ryan tends to do very well at this meeting and he will have trained Volterra to peak right now.

After a 4th and a 3rd to begin, Volterra won on his final juvenile start and began his sophomore season the same way. He cleared away from Skukuza at Newmarket who is also in this race, and he had some other good horses in behind.

It would be no surprise to see him run very well in conditions that should bring about the required improvement.

Summary

We reckon that our ten, plus a few more to be honest, hold some sort of winning chance in this race and much may come down to luck in running.

Already looking like a classy type after winning at Kempton last summer, the manner in which QIRAT won last time cannot be ignored and he seems to be the most likely winner.

At the very least this horse would seem to be worth over 100, maybe significantly so, meaning his mark of 92 is very generous.