The mile-and-a-half Duke of Edinburgh is a tough old race. This really is one for the better handicapped horses, not for those classier types who should be in Group company.

That is reflected in the weights carried by the last ten winners. Arab Spring (2014), Baghdad (2019) and Okita Soushi (2023) carried 9st 10lbs, 9-8 and 9-13, all ridden by Ryan Moore, but they bump up the average which is 9-4.

In that time period six of the ten carried either 9-2 or 9-3 which is the sweet spot. In terms of ratings, winners had marks of 91 to 104, the median figure being 98. There were only two real outsiders winning during this time, the other eight averaging being in the top 14% of the betting.

That last fact is significant. Those carrying lower weights appear to do best, they seem to be well handicapped and laid out for the race, often resulting in them being well backed.

Should all 19 horses run then that top 14% means the first three in the betting. As the odds will fluctuate, we knocked out the lowest ten in the market. Those aged over 5 were also not fancied, though we left in two of them owing to how well they were fancied.

This only left seven horses in the field and after ranking them, we only threw out Safecracker to leave these six headliners: 

Main Contenders

Crystal Black

Crystal Black is six years old now and is right near the top of the weights, but he made this list based on his recent form which leaves him around a 4/1 chance.

Since August last year his form figures read 131-11 and that can’t be ignored. He’s only just been getting there though and probably isn’t the best handicapped in this line-up.

Deakin 

Another for Ireland here as Jospeh O’Brien’s Deakin looks to get revenge on Crystal Black after the Curragh.

That’s very possible as this horse is certainly on the up. What we would say is that while he’s likely better treated than his old foe, he’s still not as well handicapped as one or two others and he’s drawn very wide.

Ethical Diamond 

As a four-year-old rated 94, trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by Ryan Moore, there’s nothing at a glance at all to put you off Ethical Diamond.

He last ran on the flat 40 days ago and should be nice and fresh for this, but that huge upturn in form that many expect will have to be coaxed out of him by Moore and he is drawn wide. Big chance, but he’s also a little short in the market.

Fairbanks 

If the stats are to prove correct, then we’ll need this horse to be well backed overnight. Classed as somewhat of an outsider at the time of writing at 16/1, he’s the most attractive to us overall.

Andrew Balding’s four-year-old won twice this time last year on fast racing ground and should love it here. Having warmed up at Thirsk in April he won easily at Newcastle in May before being run out of it at Hamilton three weeks ago.

That was over a longer trip and it’s thought that this drop back will see him carry on his improvement. Oisin Murphy should be able to get him into a good early position from stall 2 and will have lots of time to get out.

Sea King

Sir Mark Prescott won a big handicap for this page on Tuesday and he could go close again here.

His five-year-old Sea King is relatively lightly raced and still has more to offer. He is a last-time-out winner on soft ground but he handles the quicker turf just fine and he looks nicely handicapped to us.

Shadow Dance 

The only negative about this horse at a glance is his wide draw.

Roger Varian’s Shadow Dance is a four-year-old, rated 94 and coming from near the bottom of the weights. He ran five times last season, winning the once, and having been gelded over the winter could produce a higher level of form now.

Summary

Most of the money will go the way of Ethical Diamond and it would be no surprise to see him win. Sea King is of interest and Shadow Dance is good value but even better priced here is FAIRBANKS.

Andrew Balding’s runner is a really attractive proposition in this event and it won’t be a shock if plenty of money comes for him overnight or on the day of the race.