Ebor Handicap Betting Tips
Ebor time is upon us. Despite York hosting the Juddmonte International, Nunthorpe Stakes and Yorkshire Oaks this week, this race still attracts the most attention.
There is £500,000 up for grabs, £300,000 of that going to the winner. That’s Cheltenham Gold Cup money, so it’s no surprise to see jumps trainers going for this race once again.
We scored in this last year with Trawlerman and are looking to do so again. Some very classy types have won the 1-mile, 5-furlong, 188-yard handicap owing to the money, with the vast majority of recent renewals won by those aged 4-6.
It is worth mentioning that, for the first time ever, the Ebor offers the winner of the race a golden ticket entry in the Melbourne Cup, arguably another motivating factor for some connections.
No favourite has won the Ebor since Purple Moon in 2007, however the last ten winners have ranged only from 5/1 to 33/1 with an average SP of 13/1 and a median figure of 9/1. Five of the last six winners have gone off between 11/2 and 12/1 so those at the front end of the market are definitely doing best.
In terms of trainers; Brian Ellison won it in 2011 and Iain Jardine in 2017, but most recent renewals have been won by Newmarket specifically or Ireland more generally. William Haggas in particular is desperate to win this, while we cannot discount the Lambourn trainers either.
With all of these things taken into consideration, along with form, progression and handicap marks, these are the six we like best against the field:
Main Contenders
Adjuvant
Michael Bell’s four-year-old couldn’t have done an awful lot more going into this race and has certainly been keeping the right sort of company.
Second to HMS President to begin his season, Adjuvant went on to win at Newmarket before finishing fifth in the Northumberland Plate. He has followed that up with a second behind Sweet William of all horses, form that gives him a major shout without any doubt at all.
Jackfinbar
Willie Mullins has moved to book top man William Buick for his Jackfinbar in a race the leaving jumps trainer is determined to win.
The eight-year-old gelding has not been with Mullins long. In nine outings for Harry Dunlop he reached a good level, even winning a Group 3 at Longchamp way back when.
Off the track and gelded between 2019 and 2023, he is somewhat of an inigma but he clearly has talent and can go well.
Live Your Dream
Saeed bin Suroor is fashioning a brilliant second career as the trainer of Godolphin’s older, lightly-raced top handicappers.
Live Your Dream, at six years old and with only 13 runs under his belt, is such a horse and he was mightily impressive last time out at Newmarket over this trip.
He was also third at Royal Ascot so he can mix it in very deep handicaps, certainly one for most shortlists.
Real Dream
Sir Michael Stoute four-year-olds were automatically followed in years gone by. We can’t simply back every one of them, but there is something in the way he patiently trains that means horses aren’t asked for too much at three and can thrive when they’re a little more mature.
Real Dream has only run six times, winning three. He scored easily over 1m6f at Ascot recently and looks the type to run very well.
Scriptwriter
Jumps trainer Milton Harris got a Grade 2 hurdle win out of this horse and when he was sent to the all-weather over the winter, some eyebrows were raised in the National Hunt game.
Seventh to Vauban at Royal Ascot and a close second to Hamish round here in a Group 3, this horse has Flat class and the team has eyed this race for a good while.
Sweet William
Sweet William is a very obvious horse for the Ebor, but there really is so much to like about him. In terms of his basic form, it is excellent and we don’t know how far he can go yet.
He’s won three in a row easily over 1m4f, 2m and 1m6f. He’s done it on all sorts of ground and hasn’t run at all like we’ve got to anywhere near the bottom of him yet. A worthwhile favourite.
Another angle with Sweet William is that John Gosden remains keen on trying to win a Melbourne Cup. A win here would get their horse into the Cup which will surely be on their minds.
Summary
This looks like a fair chance for SWEET WILLIAM to score. It remains to be seen whether, if successful, connections will take up their Melbourne Cup option on November 7 but it would be great to see.