At £41,000 to the winner, the Eider Chase isn’t the richest race this weekend but it may be one of the most important. We may see some Grand National contenders here, the last horse doing the Eider-National double being Comply Or Die in 2008.

It’ll be tough going, the field taking on 24 fences on soft ground across 4 miles, 1½ furlongs before facing Newcastle’s stiff uphill finish.

As for how tough that really is, we’ve looked at the age and weight carried of the last ten winners.

The lowest carried by a winner in that period was 9st12lbs, with a high of 11-8, an average of 10-13 and a median of 11st dead. Six out of ten in fact carried between 10-13 and 11-1 which seems to be the sweet spot.

In terms of age, there were a couple of 7-year-olds, a ten and an eleven-year-old, with six of the ten winners being aged 9.

One of the 7-year-olds was last year’s winner, the classy Kitty’s Light. The gelding also carried 11-4, fairly big for an Eider winner, perhaps meaning he simply had serious quality. The only 11-year-old winner was also the horse carrying the featherweight of 9-12.

Taking those two potential anomalies out we have a much tighter ideal age and weight profile. 7-9-year-olds are perfect it seems, while those carrying 10-8 to 11-1, up to 11-4 at a push, are carrying just the right weight.

With those stats and many others taken into account, these are the six we like best against the field with our ultimate selection given below.

Main Contenders

Anglers Crag

First thing’s first; Brian Ellison is a Geordie and he loves to win at Newcastle, especially in the bigger events. While that is no scientific justification for backing a horse, what it does tell us is that when he has a live one it is more than likely that the horse has been prepared to perfection for its big day.

On the flat, Ellison was known in the past for being able to improve a horse coming in from another yard and it’s happened with this nine-year-old chaser too.

When with David Pipe Anglers Crag won just once and reached a mark of 106. Since joining Ellison, he is three from three over fences, is up to 126 with no end of his improvement yet in sight and he also stays a trip and handles soft ground. Henry Brooke rides.

Cruz Control

Brian Hughes was booked at the first declaration stage for Tom Lacey’s Cruz Control and he certainly makes our list.

A seven-year-old with five chases under his belt, Cruz Control has been very consistent. On the numbers he has every chance here, but he’s been running primarily on better ground over much shorter trips and so of course has plenty to prove.

Fenland Tiger

Fenland Tiger won around Newcastle on heavy ground at the end of last month over three miles, so that is a major tick in the plus column.

He’s worked that trick a couple of times in fact and looks well set to give this a big go from a handy looking racing weight.

Gold Clermont 

Even lower down the weights is Gold Clermont, an eight-year-old mare with a decent profile for this race.

Four times a winner over fences, she’s an undoubted stayer, she goes in the mud, she’s bang in form right now and she should love this occasion. Gold Clermont has a lot going for her here indeed, just as long as she handles the occasion as she’s up against better opposition over a longer trip.

Major Dundee

Those taking a peek at Major Dundee’s form will see him as a marquee race winner who has been affected by it and gone out of form.

In this case, Alan King’s horse won the Midlands National in 2023 having earlier been placed in the Scottish National and he hasn’t been the same horse since.

On the flip side, he has only taken in ten chases in his life and at nine should have plenty left to give. His big day will come again.

Tommie Beau

Seamus Mullins runs Tommie Beau in this and he has been in great form. Second in the Sussex National last time, he knows how to do it in this kind of race but you’d imagine the handicapper pretty much has him now.

If he has more improvement to show, he is another who can go close.

Summary

We know fine well that trends can be broken and indeed they change over time.

But when we have two horses clear of the rest on our ratings, the numbers can be handy. One of said pair is eight years old and carries 10-3, the other is nine and carries 11-0 for a local trainer and that’s a nice little list of plus points to compile.

The horses in question are ANGLERS CRAG (selection) and Gold Clermont (second choice). Unfortunately for us, the price of our horse isn’t the most inspiring as he’s been winning lately but he does look rock solid and can be backed.