Well, it’s back. Britain’s biggest betting event, the Grand National, is run on Saturday and we have the job of sorting out this monster field.

We’re down to 34 runners in this race now, but this remains the most difficult race to get right. The field takes on 30 fences across 4¼ miles at Aintree on soft ground, the winner receiving £500,000.

So, how can we narrow this field down? Well, recent history tells us a few things.

We’re not bothered about odds. Favourites have won, so have 100/1 shots. We looked at numerous facts about the last ten winners, beginning with age.

All were aged 7 to 11, with the median being nine. In fact, 8-9-year-olds accounted for seven of the winners. We reckon 7-9 is ideal.

Winners were rated from 137 to 160, with the average and median figures being 148. 143+ certainly seems to be what’s needed, while weight carried averages out at 10st 10lbs with 10-3 right up to 11-8 being OK.

All ten winners ran between 2 and 14 times over three miles or more. Five of them ran exactly 7 times over this distance. Noble Yeats was placed over 3m only once and Minella Times twice, but all others were placed at least four times over 3m+. We’ll settle for three.

Eight of the 10 winners won a Class 2 race or better over 3m+ too, mostly in fact in Premier races like this. Even one of those who didn’t was placed in a Grade 1.

As for days off; breaks of 22-84 days were recorded, the average being 38 and the median 32. 8/10 winners last ran 22-35 days ago, which seems to be the sweet spot and still includes the Cheltenham Festival. Certainly, those racing less than 22 days ago and those having not been seen for, say, 90 days can probably be counted out.

We’d love to start with a blank canvass and count each horse in. But, in true Narrowing the Field style, we need to count out the horses who do not fit the profile.

Who’s Left In?

This leaves us with only 13 horses. In fact, three of those don’t strictly meet the criteria. Delta Work and Corach Rambler are above the age we want, but based on class (and one of them winning it last year), we can’t leave them out.

Meetingofthewaters has only been placed once in race over three miles or more but again, he is classy and well fancied.

Having rated those 13, we checked out all of their form, progression/regression and preferences to come up with this Grand National shortlist of six: 

Main Contenders

Capodanno 

One of three on the shortlist owned by JP McManus, his trainer Willie Mullins being responsible for the same number. This one is great value having won the Cotswold Chase two runs ago before finishing fourth in the Ryanair Chase.

Coko Beach

Gordon Elliott is responsible for an uncomfortable number of runners in the National, this one being his best in our opinion.

A Grade 3 winner, Coko Beach was also second around here in December in the Becher and he was an easy winner last time out which looked great prep.

Corach Rambler  

Last year’s winner is back for more after a very good staying-on third in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham.

It’s great form, but not winning form and this will be as hard if not harder with his handicap mark and age now not helping him out.

I Am Maximus 

Short in the market now, carrying JP’s first colours and being the first choice (apparently) of Paul Townend and Willie Mullins.

He is inexperienced, but he won his Grade 3 in easy fashion last time out and is a likely type.

Kitty’s Light 

When on a great run last season, Kitty’s Light won the Eider Chase, the Scottish Grand National and the bet365 Gold Cup. He’s been nowhere near that form since, but have they been looking after his handicap mark?

Meetingofthewaters

Also short in the market for McManus and Mullins is this horse, winner of a strong Listed event.

The form is all there, though when third in the Ultima it proved he was good, but was beaten in a handicap and he’s 2lbs higher now.

Summary

It’s hard to know how well previous big staying winners Corach Rambler and Kitty’s Light will perform. Of this list, the best ones on basic ratings are I Am Maximus and Meetingofthewaters. Both however are fairly short prices.

We’ve got to back more than one horse in this race. Even if you’re right about a runner, it could easily come a cropper.

Given the prices, the advice is to back both COKO BEACH and CAPODANNO each-way.

At the time of writing, they are available at 25/1 and 33/1 generally. With extra places given, that’s good value and they should give you a run for your money.