The flat is back. In traditional fashion, the Lincoln provides the first major betting handicap of the turf season, hot on the heels of its Irish equivalent.

This race forms part of the Spring Double along with the Grand National and it’s a race we’ve picked out the winner of numerous times in the past including with Addeybb, Auxerre and Haqeeqy.

Those horses all had something in common; four-year-old improvers who were well ahead of the handicapper. That’s not to say other can’t win, with Johan and Migration winning at 5 and 7 over the last two years, but we reckon it takes a certain type here with these being the six we like best: 

Main Contenders

Awaal 

A very short price going into the weekend is Awaal, a five-year-old trained by the Crisfords. At a glance, you’d wonder about prices such as 7/2 given his form figures read 33030- but it doesn’t tell the full story.

His latest third was at Listed level on ground that was probably too lively for him. He was also sent off as short as 6/4 favourite that day.

He was also third in last year’s Bunbury Cup at Newmarket and, much more pertinently, was second in last year’s Lincoln on heavy ground behind Migration.

The jury is out on whether her is improving or not, while he may just be drawn on the wrong side given that the stalls are fair here but the field has had a tendency to come up the near side in recent seasons.

Blues Emperor 

Johnny Murtagh sends this one over and his form last summer was pretty good. He beat Chazzesmee (see below) before running well on soft ground and then finishing runner-up in the Irish Cambridgeshire.

Whether absolutely everything is in his favour for this race, we don’t know, but he looks a strong contender given his previous strong handicap form.

Chazzesmee 

This is the horse many are talking about as he won the Irish Lincoln as recently as Monday.

In terms of form and weight, there’s no doubt he has a fine chance and we know he’ll handle the conditions. What it comes down to is whether this field is better and whether he is 100% OK in racing in two such events twice in a week.

He may have plenty in hand, we really don’t know, but he is a short price given that he has been handed a stiff task.

Liberty Lane 

One of two four-year-olds on our list with nice profiles, Liberty Lane has not crept into this race quietly and in fact is very well fancied.

Trained by Karl Burke whose Night Raider is now only around 10/1 for the 2000 Guineas, Liberty Lane won over this course and distance last autumn which is a route others have taken to this race including Addeybb.

He was gelded over the winter having run down the field in the Cambridgeshire, but before that he was a sharply improving 2-6 on turf with more likely to come. Big chance.

Mr Professor 

Though Amo Racing have left out the likes of Raadobarg, they have a lively outsider in Mr Professor.

A 29-race veteran, there are no secrets with this horse but a strong mile on soft ground is just about perfect for him and he won’t let his connections down.

Vetiver 

The other useful four-year-old on our list is the filly Vetiver, trainer by Andrew Balding.

At first glance, you’d say Liberty Lane is better placed but we have to keep in mind that this filly hasn’t been doing her thing only in handicaps.

Having been moving up the ladder nicely, Vetiver took down a Listed race at Carlisle last summer on bad ground. She did well to win that before being placed third in a Group 3 at Doncaster during the Leger meeting.

She was beaten 5¾ lengths that day, but the winner went on to score again at Newmarket and Vetiver was staying on very well over the seven-furlong trip, leaving us to believe she would have received a much bigger rating had the race been over this mile.

She seems capable of a mark of at least 106 to us, maybe more, so off 98 she’s well handicapped and will like the underfoot conditions.

Summary

This race has always been a difficult one to get right, but not an outright conundrum.

If Chazzesmee is OK after Monday’s win he’s an obvious contender, as is Awaal. They may be vulnerable to a couple of four-year-olds however.

Liberty Lane has plenty in his favour and is short in the market too, but much more attractive at the odds and in with a huge shout is VETIVER who ultimately gets the nod from us.