The Northumberland Plate field has finally been cut down to the round course safety limit of 20 which leaves plenty for us to get stuck into.

This £150,000 event is the feature race of the day, coming after the consolation event and the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes.

Historically, there is a real carnival feel to this week at Newcastle. The ‘Hoppings’ will be visible in the background for those in the packed stands, but our job is to whittle this field right down if we can.

There have so far been 8 renewals of the Plate on the all-weather. The surface may ride a little slow this weekend after all the hot weather but there will be a genuine pace so the form and stats should remain reliable.

Age isn’t an issue. Improving types still catch the eye, but they needn’t be young. We’re not concerned about the draw either.

There’s lots of time for those drawn high to get into the race, while those drawn low will expend some energy keeping their position at the front end, often relinquishing that late on up the long and tiring uphill home straight.

We’re hoping a couple of extremes cancel each other out here. A very low-rated horse won during the Covid year, while Trueshan was exceptional in winning of a Group 1 sort of mark.

Winners of the 8 Tapeta versions have been rated from 89 to 120, with the average being 102 and the median being 99.

Weights carried range from 8st 5lbs up to 10-8, the average being 9-3 and the median 9-2. If we take out the extremes, all horses have carried 8-13 to 9-5 but this year’s weights wouldn’t support that due to Tashkan’s presence at the top.

5 out of 8 winners had one or two runs that season. They need to have some freshness to either still be ahead of the handicapper, or have time to be prepared precisely for this race.

Winners’ odds ranged from 3/1 to 33/1 and were an even spread, not helping too much. Half of the eight renewals were won by the favourite or second-favourite, but the other half ranged from 8th to 14th in the market.

The stats can help to sharpen the brain, but they didn’t narrow the field down a whole lot. Turning to our private ratings then, these are the six we took against the field with some important omissions: 

Main Contenders

Duke Of Oxford

Terrific at Newcastle at the start of the year and has had time to improve since. Drawn wide, but he may be the one to pounce when the leaders get tired. Indeed, on AW Championships Finals Day here he was in rear and didn’t have time to get up. Tyler Heard takes off 3lbs.

Grand Providence 

Andrew Balding’s runner now has former AW champion jockey David Probert on board. He won the Cesarewitch Trial last year and remains fresh, but hasn’t hit the heights on this surface yet.

Spartan Army

This horse has similar form to Duke Of Oxford but was better positioned when they each ran here over Easter. The other horse is preferred, but he’s solid anyway for Alan King and young Billy Loughnane.

Trooper Bisdee 

The favourite going into this week for Sir Mark Prescott. A typically sharp improver of his, he looks a likely one but this race is different to those he’s been contesting and in fact he took in 2¼ miles of Pontefract only six days ago.

True Legend 

Another for Sir Mark Prescott; True Legend is bang in form on the turf and at four years old has not reached his peak over staying distances.

Yashin

Jessica Harrington brings this horse from Ireland, one with recent form behind Gold Cup winner Kyprios. He has handicap form in the Ebor too so should be watched in the betting.

Summary

This shortlisted bunch were all so close together. It was difficult to spot one with a definite edge.

The trick then was not to overthink it, and the one horse that kept coming top of the ratings was DUKE OF OXFORD.

He was well beaten in the Chester Cup last time, which just wasn’t for him, but before that he showed constant improvement on the all-weather including in a good race at Newcastle.

There’s no reason to say that improvement has now stopped. We get him 7-10lbs ahead of his actual mark which could be very hard to live with if he puts it all in.

Spartan Army has similar form and is solid, we don’t know if improver Trooper Bisdee will do it on Tapeta and so soon after last running, while Yashin could go well but hasn’t shown his very best form this year.