We’re on the straight mile for the Sandringham, a race featuring 30 three-year-old fillies and therefore considered somewhat of a betting basket case.

A look back at recent winners suggests weight carried isn’t too big a deal. Some classy types at the top have just as much of a chance as those seemingly well treated fillies at the bottom.

That doesn’t help us greatly, but other stats do. When the ground has been fast in the last ten years, 4/6 winners were favourites and one other was second-favourite.

Five of those six winning fillies had won this season and none of them had run more than twice. A win first time up and/or a win last time out seems to be the recipe. That and the fact they were at the top of the market is likely because on fast ground, the form is more reliable.

In terms of narrowing the field down then, we lost any fillies who hadn’t won this season and/or who had run more than twice (meaning the handicapper has probably got to them).

That included Aidan O’Brien’s runner with Ryan Moore on board, but we must be fearless and ruthless. That still left an awful lot of horses, but some clearly didn’t have the form to get to the top end of the market, meaning we reduced things further using the prices.

This was not a race we could reduce very far. A look at some pedigrees and recent form however led us to these six: 

Main Contenders

Forever Blue 

Wathan Racing may have loads of cash to spread around but they are spending wisely. Forever Blue is one of theirs, purchased only a week ago, and she could give James Doyle another few minutes in the spotlight at this meeting.

Her form is good, she’s two from three, and there is definitely more to come now.

Indelible 

We tipped up Coppice to win this last year and now Juddmonte have another favourite in the race, this time for Ralph Beckett.

She won her only race this year and another at Lingfield over the winter and she’s obviously moving up the grades.

Kitty Rose 

After running at Leopardstown in April this horse moved to the Australian yard of Mick Price and Michael Kent. She has a good profile, but she may not be the best handicapped filly in the race.

Mrs Morrell

Many racing fans who were around 20-odd years ago will remember the Thoroughbred Corporation. They’re back with a few fillies trained by the Gosdens, one of which is Mrs Morrell who won easily at Yarmouth last time.

There’s nothing wrong with her form or her profile, but her big price is perhaps down to how well she won on very soft ground last time. Like a number of horses this week, she could prove that she won last time in spite of it and not because of it, making her great value under claimer Tyler Heard.

Shin Jidai

Your faithful writer was at Newcastle the day Shin Jidai won on her debut last summer and she did it comfortably that day.

Thoughts were that the Tapeta wasn’t her ideal surface and indeed she’s slowly improved on ‘good’ or quicker turf since.

Her latest run at Kempton was OK but we can expect much more of the Blue Point filly in these conditions and she has done little to deserve her large odds. Silvestre De Sousa rides for Roger Varian.

Without Words  

Joseph O’Brien’s runner has only been seen three times so she is another likely still improving quickly.

She was weak in the market when runner-up to one of Aidan O’Brien’s but still ran well, so strength in the market this time should be taken seriously.

Summary

We were all over the place in an attempt to get some help from the stats in this race. In the end, we’re throwing a lot of them out as so many are contradictory.

When we dug deep into the profiles of the above six, it wasn’t a surprise to see Indelible and Kitty Rose showing up well but the two who came out on top are big prices.

MRS MORRELL and SHIN JIDAI won’t be that fashionable come race time on Friday, but our advice is to split the stakes and back them both each-way.

Neither are drawn high, but statistically the ground is as quick now on the far side as it is on the near, at least according to the going stick, so we’re prepared to take a chance at the prices.